by Calculated Risk on 2/21/2012 11:57:00 AM
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 1.3% in December
Note: Vehicle miles have moved sideways for over four years. And gasoline consumption has declined slightly over the same period. For a discussion of the causes, see NDD's post at the Bonddad blog this morning: Why the decline in gasoline demand doesn't mean a recession -- yet. Among other points, NDD writes: "It appears that gasoline conservation is a top priority of consumers." and he provides a list (with data): Ridership of mass transit is up, online retail purchases have increased, automakers are selling more fuel efficient cars, teen driving is down, and more.
The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported:
• Travel on all roads and streets changed by +1.3% (3.2 billion vehicle miles) for December 2011 as compared with December 2010.The following graph shows the rolling 12 month total vehicle miles driven.
• Cumulative Travel for 2011 changed by -1.2% (-35.7 billion vehicle miles).
Even with a small year-over-year increase in December, the rolling 12 month total is mostly moving sideways.
![Vehicle Miles](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEha4GiXuc4t_ErUnz887BwbiSOfm7rIWCEMIkfXtB4M7MtvTApO-ZX1kWBbgkQcMByr30qri2jzNf5mLWs6-YNmMWPflJ67DGdH55n3belJx0eFgsPAQbzWsBopcNJPlQETuHzu/s320/VehicleMilesDec2011.jpg)
In the early '80s, miles driven (rolling 12 months) stayed below the previous peak for 39 months.
Currently miles driven has been below the previous peak for 49 months - and still counting!
The second graph shows the year-over-year change from the same month in the previous year.
![Vehicle Miles Driven YoY](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxe2U6d_PpjbhgXhr0vyOd9ltnauom_Qb0LsGj6QssfL9l22AV1GNkOxsqMJ7nzHOBYBNpQku_2J8dafeNLpSer4iS47fD9FEJMB3tOpK_CanzAhHwlYk9GHo00XMjuV9mcE1K/s320/VehiclesMilesYoYDec2011.jpg)
With the recent increases in gasoline prices, we might see year-over-year declines again in January or February. But this doesn't mean a recession - instead, as NDD notes, it appears that behavior is changing, and also that the fleet is becoming more efficient ... and, of course, growth is still sluggish and holding back driving too.