by Calculated Risk on 1/14/2012 04:03:00 PM
Saturday, January 14, 2012
• Summary for Week Ending January 13th
There are three key housing reports that will be released this week: January homebuilder confidence on Wednesday, December housing starts on Thursday, and December existing home sales on Friday.
For manufacturing, the January NY Fed (Empire state) and Philly Fed surveys, and the December Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report will be released this week.
On prices, the December Producer Price index (PPI) will be released Wednesday, and CPI will be released on Thursday.
All US markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.
8:30 AM ET: NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for January. The consensus is for a reading of +10.5, up from +9.53 in December (above zero is expansion).
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index was especially weak last year, although this doesn't include cash buyers.
8:30 AM: Producer Price Index for December. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in producer prices (0.1% increase in core).
9:15 AM ET: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for December.
This shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production decreased in November to 94.8.
The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in Industrial Production in December, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 78.1% (from 77.8%).
10 AM ET: The January NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 21, unchanged from December. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. This index has been below 25 for four years.
During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for December (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a decrease to 383,000 from 399,000 last week.
8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index for December. The consensus is a 0.1% increase in prices. The consensus for core CPI is also an increase of 0.1%.
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for December.
After collapsing following the housing bubble, single family housing starts have been moving sideways for almost three years. However multi-family starts increased in 2011.
The consensus is for a slight decrease in total housing starts to 680,000 (SAAR) from 685,000 (SAAR) in November.
10:00 AM: Philly Fed Survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 11.0, up from 6.8 last month (above zero indicates expansion).
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for December from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
The consensus is for sales of 4.6 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate basis.
Economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 4.64 million, up about 5% from November’s pace. He also expects the NAR to report inventory declined to around 2.44 million, down 5.4% from November and down 19.2% from last December. This would put months-of-supply at around 6.3 months (lowest since early 2006), and would put listed inventory at the lowest level since early-2005.
During the day: The current "troika" discussions with Greece are set to conclude.