In Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Fannie Mae Serious Delinquency rate declines, Freddie Mac rate increases

by Calculated Risk on 1/31/2012 04:27:00 PM

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined in December to 3.91%, down from 4.0% in November. This is down from 4.48% in December 2010. The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate increased to 3.58% in December, up from 3.57% in November. This is the fourth month in a row with a small increase in the delinquency rate. Freddie's rate is down from 3.84% in December 2010. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.

These are loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".

Fannie Freddie Seriously Delinquent RateClick on graph for larger image

The serious delinquency rate has been declining, but declining very slowly (Freddie's decline seems to have stalled). The reason for the slow decline is most likely the backlog of homes in the foreclosure process due to processing issues (aka robo-signing).

I expect a mortgage servicer settlement agreement to be reached very soon, and that will probably lead to more modifications and foreclosures - so the delinquency rate should start to decline faster.

The "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%, so there is a long way to go.

All current mortgage delinquency graphs

Earlier on House Prices:
Case Shiller: House Prices fall to new post-bubble lows in November (seasonally adjusted)
Real House Prices and House Price-to-Rent
All current house price graphs