Thursday, December 22, 2011

Philly Fed State Coincident Indexes increase in November

by Calculated Risk on 12/22/2011 12:05:00 PM

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for November 2011. In the past month, the indexes increased in 44 states, decreased in four, and remained unchanged in two (Hawaii and Wyoming) for a one-month diffusion index of 80. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 43 states, decreased in six, and remained unchanged in one (Hawaii) for a three-month diffusion index of 74.
Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. From the Philly Fed:
The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.
Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing ActivityClick on graph for larger image.

This is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In November, 45 states had increasing activity, up from 44 in October. This is the highest level since April.

Philly Fed State Conincident Map Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the recession, and all green earlier this year - but this is an improvement from a few months ago.

Earlier:
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 364,000
Final December Consumer Sentiment at 69.9