Thursday, December 22, 2011

More House Price Indexes show price declines in October

by Calculated Risk on 12/22/2011 04:00:00 PM

The Case-Shiller House Price index for October will be released Tuesday, Dec 27th. Based on released data, it appears the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller indexes will fall to new post-bubble lows in October (but not the NSA indexes). Here are a few other recently released indexes:

• Yesterday from FNC: Home Prices Continue to Weaken: Down 0.6% in October

FNC’s latest Residential Price Index™ (RPI), released Wednesday, indicates that October U.S. home prices continued to weaken at a modest pace despite recent positive home-sales data. The trend is a reminder that the housing market remains constrained by weak economic fundamentals and the overhang of distressed properties. October marks the third month of continued price declines and is unfortunately accompanied by a moderate downward index revision to the previous month.

Based on the latest data on non-distressed home sales (existing and new homes) through October, FNC’s national RPI shows that single-family home prices fell in October to a seasonally unadjusted rate of 0.6%. The September index value is revised downward from -0.4% to -0.9%.
The FNC index tables for three composite indexes and 30 cities are here.

• From Radar Logic today Home Prices Decline Year-Over-Year in October for Fifth Year in a Rowa
Home prices fell 5.4 percent year over year through October 20, making 2011 the fifth year in a row in which the 25-metropolitan-statistical-area (MSA) RPX Composite price has declined year over year in October. The Composite price declined 2.0 percent on a month-over-month basis, the largest such decline in three years.
...
The S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City composite for September 2011, published last month, was 155.73 and the 20-City composite was 141.97. The October 2011 10-City composite index, to be published next Tuesday, will be about 152, and the 20-City index will be roughly 139.
• CoreLogic reported earlier this month for October: CoreLogic: House Price Index declined 1.3% in October basis
October Home Price Index (HPI®) which shows that home prices in the U.S. decreased 1.3 percent on a month-over-month basis, the third consecutive monthly decline. According to the CoreLogic HPI, national home prices, including distressed sales, also declined by 3.9 percent on a year-over-year basis in October 2011 compared to October 2010.
• From FHFA today: FHFA House Price Index Falls 0.2 Percent in October
U.S. house prices fell 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from September to October, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index.... For the 12 months ending in October, U.S. prices fell 2.8
percent.
• From Zillow: Zillow Forecast: October Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 3.5% Decline from One Year Ago
The Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for October will be released on Tuesday, the 27th of December. Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted, NSA) will decline by 3.5 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will show a year-over-year decline of 3.2 percent. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from September to October will be -0.8 percent and -0.7 percent for the 20 and 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA), respectively.
Based on the Radar Logic and Zillow forecasts, the Case-Shiller (SA) indexes will be at new post bubble lows in October (not the NSA indexes yet).