by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2011 03:44:00 PM

Some food for thought from economist Tom Lawler:

The tables below assume continued low immigration and two scenarios for headship rates: 1) an average of Census 2000 and 2010 headship rates, and 2) just Census 2010 headship rates.

CR Note: Under both scenarios - the average of Census 2000 and 2010 headship rates and just using the 2010 headship rates - there will be a fairly strong increase in younger households over the next few years (the apartment analysts have been making this argument).

Even with a 50%+ increase in multi-family starts in 2011, the builders will have only started around 150,000 to 160,000 units this year. Based on these projections, multi-family starts will increase further over the next few years.

And look at the projected increase in 55 to 74 year old households. That will probably be a key segment of growth for households. Of course headships rates could fall further (the older people could move in with their kids), but this suggests positive demographics for housing over the next several years.

Tables and calculations by Tom Lawler:

US Households by Age Group: Headship Rates Equal to 2000 and 2010 Average
Age	2010	2015	Avg. Annual Change
15-24	5,401	5,781	76
25-34	17,957	19,448	298
35-44	21,291	21,277	-3
45-54	24,907	24,324	-117
55-64	21,340	24,053	543
65-74	13,505	17,033	706
75+	12,315	12,692	75
Total	116,716	124,608	1,578

US Households by Age Group: Headship Rates Stay at 2010 Lows
Age	2010	2015	Avg. Annual Change
15-24	5,401	5,401	0
25-34	17,957	18,983	205
35-44	21,291	21,024	-53
45-54	24,907	24,069	-168
55-64	21,340	24,012	534
65-74	13,505	16,981	695
75+	12,315	12,918	121
Total	116,716	123,388	1,334