Saturday, November 19, 2011

Lawler: Household Growth by Age Group: 2010 – 2015 “Conservative” Forecasts

by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2011 03:44:00 PM

Some food for thought from economist Tom Lawler:

The tables below assume continued low immigration and two scenarios for headship rates: 1) an average of Census 2000 and 2010 headship rates, and 2) just Census 2010 headship rates.

CR Note: Under both scenarios - the average of Census 2000 and 2010 headship rates and just using the 2010 headship rates - there will be a fairly strong increase in younger households over the next few years (the apartment analysts have been making this argument).

Even with a 50%+ increase in multi-family starts in 2011, the builders will have only started around 150,000 to 160,000 units this year. Based on these projections, multi-family starts will increase further over the next few years.

And look at the projected increase in 55 to 74 year old households. That will probably be a key segment of growth for households. Of course headships rates could fall further (the older people could move in with their kids), but this suggests positive demographics for housing over the next several years.

Tables and calculations by Tom Lawler:

US Households by Age Group: Headship Rates Equal to 2000 and 2010 Average
Age20102015Avg. Annual Change
15-245,4015,78176
25-3417,95719,448298
35-4421,29121,277-3
45-5424,90724,324-117
55-6421,34024,053543
65-7413,50517,033706
75+12,31512,69275
Total116,716124,6081,578


US Households by Age Group: Headship Rates Stay at 2010 Lows
Age20102015Avg. Annual Change
15-245,4015,4010
25-3417,95718,983205
35-4421,29121,024-53
45-5424,90724,069-168
55-6421,34024,012534
65-7413,50516,981695
75+12,31512,918121
Total116,716123,3881,334