In Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Case Shiller: Home Prices decline in September

by Calculated Risk on 11/29/2011 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for September (a 3 month average of July, August and September). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities and and two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the national quarterly index for Q3.

Note: Case-Shiller reports NSA, I use the SA data. Here is a table of the year-over-year and monthly changes for both SA and NSA.

Case Shiller September 2011Seasonally AdjustedNot Seasonally Adjusted
YoY ChangeOne Month ChangeYoY ChangeOne Month Change
Composite 10-3.3%-0.4%-3.3%-0.4%
Composite 20-3.6%-0.6%-3.6%-0.6%

From S&P: Home Prices Weaken as the Third Quarter of 2011 Ends
The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 3.9% decline in the third quarter of 2011 over the third quarter of 2010. In September, the 10- and 20-City Composites posted annual rates of decline of 3.3% and 3.6%, respectively. Eighteen of the 20 MSAs and both monthly Composites had negative annual rates in September 2011, the only exceptions being Detroit and Washington DC.

“Home prices drifted lower in September and the third quarter,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “The National Index was down 3.9% versus the third quarter of 2010 and up only 0.1% from the previous quarter. Three cities posted new index lows in September 2011 - Atlanta, Las Vegas and Phoenix. Seventeen of the 20 cities and both Composites were down for the
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 32.5% from the peak, and down 0.4% in September (SA). The Composite 10 is 0.5% above the June 2009 post-bubble bottom (Seasonally adjusted).

The Composite 20 index is off 32.5% from the peak, and down 0.6% in September (SA). The Composite 20 is at a new post-bubble low.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 SA is down 3.3% compared to September 2010.

The Composite 20 SA is down 3.6% compared to September 2010. This is slightly smaller year-over-year decline than in August.

The third graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

Case-Shiller Price Declines Prices increased (SA) in 5 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in September seasonally adjusted. Prices in Las Vegas are off 60.6% from the peak, and prices in Dallas only off 8.6% from the peak.

Prices are now falling again, and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 (SA) hit a new post-bubble low.