by Calculated Risk on 11/02/2011 02:15:00 PM
Wednesday, November 02, 2011
Bernanke Press Briefing 2:15 PM ET
Below is a live video feed for Ben Bernanke's press conference.
UPDATE: The forecast updates have been added below the video.
The FOMC statement was released at 12:30 PM. The FOMC noted that "economic growth strengthened somewhat in the third quarter" although "recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated". They also noted "Inflation appears to have moderated since earlier in the year".
Here are the new FOMC projections.
GDP growth was revised down to around 1.7% this year.
GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Change in Real GDP1 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
Jan 2011 Projections | 3.4 to 3.9 | 3.5 to 4.4 | 3.7 to 4.6 | NA |
April 2011 Projections | 3.1 to 3.3 | 3.5 to 4.2 | 3.5 to 4.3 | NA |
June 2011 Projections | 2.7 to 2.9 | 3.3 to 3.7 | 3.5 to 4.2 | NA |
November 2011 Projections | 1.6 to 1.7 | 2.5 to 2.9 | 3.0 to 3.5 | 3.0 to 3.9 |
The unemployment rate was revised up to 9.0% to 9.1% (this is Q4 unemployment rate). The FOMC thinks the unemployment rate will still be around 8% at the end of 2013 and in the 6.8% to 7.7% in 2014!
Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Unemployment Rate2 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
Jan 2011 Projections | 8.8 to 9.0 | 7.6 to 8.1 | 6.8 to 7.2 | NA |
April 2011 Projections | 8.4 to 8.7 | 7.6 to 7.9 | 6.8 to 7.2 | NA |
June 2011 Projections | 8.6 to 8.9 | 7.8 to 8.2 | 7.0 to 7.5 | NA |
November 2011 Projections | 9.0 to 9.1 | 8.5 to 8.7 | 7.8 to 8.2 | 6.8 to 7.7 |
Inflation was revised up for 2011.
Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
PCE Inflation1 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
Jan 2011 Projections | 1.3 to 1.7 | 1.0 to 1.9 | 1.2 to 2.0 | NA |
April 2011 Projections | 2.1 to 2.8 | 1.2 to 2.0 | 1.4 to 2.0 | NA |
June 2011 Projections | 2.3 to 2.5 | 1.5 to 2.0 | 1.5 to 2.0 | NA |
November 2011 Projections | 2.7 to 2.9 | 1.4 to 2.0 | 1.5 to 2.0 | 1.5 to 2.0 |
But core inflation is seen at levels still below the FOMC target.
Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Core Inflation1 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
Jan 2011 Projections | 1.0 to 1.3 | 1.0 to 1.5 | 1.2 to 2.0 | NA |
April 2011 Projections | 1.3 to 1.6 | 1.3 to 1.8 | 1.4 to 2.0 | NA |
June 2011 Projections | 1.5 to 1.8 | 1.4 to 2.0 | 1.4 to 2.0 | NA |
November 2011 Projections | 1.8 to 1.9 | 1.5 to 2.0 | 1.4 to 1.9 | 1.5 to 2.0 |