Wednesday, November 02, 2011

Bernanke Press Briefing 2:15 PM ET

by Calculated Risk on 11/02/2011 02:15:00 PM

Below is a live video feed for Ben Bernanke's press conference.

UPDATE: The forecast updates have been added below the video.

The FOMC statement was released at 12:30 PM. The FOMC noted that "economic growth strengthened somewhat in the third quarter" although "recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated". They also noted "Inflation appears to have moderated since earlier in the year".



Here are the new FOMC projections.

GDP growth was revised down to around 1.7% this year.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Change in Real GDP12011201220132014
Jan 2011 Projections3.4 to 3.93.5 to 4.43.7 to 4.6NA
April 2011 Projections3.1 to 3.33.5 to 4.23.5 to 4.3NA
June 2011 Projections2.7 to 2.93.3 to 3.73.5 to 4.2NA
November 2011 Projections1.6 to 1.72.5 to 2.93.0 to 3.53.0 to 3.9
1 Projections of change in real GDP and in inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was revised up to 9.0% to 9.1% (this is Q4 unemployment rate). The FOMC thinks the unemployment rate will still be around 8% at the end of 2013 and in the 6.8% to 7.7% in 2014!

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Unemployment Rate22011201220132014
Jan 2011 Projections8.8 to 9.07.6 to 8.16.8 to 7.2NA
April 2011 Projections8.4 to 8.77.6 to 7.96.8 to 7.2NA
June 2011 Projections8.6 to 8.97.8 to 8.27.0 to 7.5NA
November 2011 Projections9.0 to 9.18.5 to 8.77.8 to 8.26.8 to 7.7
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

Inflation was revised up for 2011.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
PCE Inflation12011201220132014
Jan 2011 Projections1.3 to 1.71.0 to 1.91.2 to 2.0NA
April 2011 Projections2.1 to 2.81.2 to 2.01.4 to 2.0NA
June 2011 Projections2.3 to 2.51.5 to 2.01.5 to 2.0NA
November 2011 Projections2.7 to 2.91.4 to 2.01.5 to 2.01.5 to 2.0

But core inflation is seen at levels still below the FOMC target.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Core Inflation12011201220132014
Jan 2011 Projections1.0 to 1.31.0 to 1.51.2 to 2.0NA
April 2011 Projections1.3 to 1.61.3 to 1.81.4 to 2.0NA
June 2011 Projections1.5 to 1.81.4 to 2.01.4 to 2.0NA
November 2011 Projections1.8 to 1.91.5 to 2.01.4 to 1.91.5 to 2.0