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Friday, October 07, 2011

September Employment Report: 103,000 Jobs, 9.1% Unemployment Rate

by Calculated Risk on 10/07/2011 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS:

Nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 103,000 in September, and the unemployment rate held at 9.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The increase in employment partially reflected the return to payrolls of about 45,000 telecommunications workers who had been on strike in August.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised from +85,000 to +127,000, and the change for August was revised from 0 to +57,000
The following graph shows the employment population ratio, the participation rate, and the unemployment rate.

Employment Pop Ratio, participation and unemployment rates Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.1% (red line).

The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 64.2% in September (blue line). This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The participation rate is well below the 66% to 67% rate that was normal over the last 20 years, although some of the decline is due to the aging population.

The Employment-Population ratio increased to 58.3% in September (black line).

Note: the household survey showed a strong gain in jobs, and that is why the unemployment rate could hold steady with few payroll jobs added - and the participation rate increase.

Percent Job Losses During Recessions The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms. The dotted line is ex-Census hiring.

The red line is moving sideways - and I'll need to expand the graph soon.

This was still a weak report, but better than August (although the 45,000 Verizon workers made a big difference). There were decent upwards revisions to the July and August reports too. I'll have much more soon ...