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Saturday, September 17, 2011

Schedule for Week of Sept 18th

by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2011 02:15:00 PM

Summary for Week ending September 16th

Three key housing reports will be released this week: September homebuilder confidence on Monday, August housing starts on Tuesday, and August existing home sales on Wednesday.

The September FOMC meeting was extended to two days, and the statement will be released on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to announce a program to increase the average maturity of their portfolio - and possibly lower the interest rate on excess reserves.

----- Monday, Sept 19th -----

10 AM ET: The September NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 15, unchanged from August. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. This index has been below 25 for four years.

----- Tuesday, Sept 20th -----

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts8:30 AM: Housing Starts for August. After collapsing following the housing bubble, housing starts have mostly been moving sideways for over two years.

Total housing starts were at 604 thousand (SAAR) in July, down 1.5% from the revised June rate of 613 thousand. Single-family starts declined 4.9% to 425 thousand in July.

The consensus is for a decrease to 592,000 (SAAR) in August.

----- Wednesday, Sept 21st -----

AIA Architecture Billing IndexEarly: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for August (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index decreased in in July to 45.1 from 46.3 in June. Anything below 50 indicates a contraction in demand for architects' services.

This index usually leads investment in non-residential structures (hotels, malls, office) by 9 to 12 months.

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been very weak over the last several months and the four average was at 1995 levels last week.

Existing Home Sales10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for August from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for sales of 4.75 million at a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in August, up from 4.67 million SAAR in July. This is probably low - economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 4.91 million.

Note: the NAR is working on benchmarking existing home sales for previous years with other industry data (expectations are for large downward revisions). These revisions are expected this fall.

2:15 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The FOMC meeting was extended to two days, and many people expect the FOMC to announce a program to change the composition of their balance sheet (extend maturities) - and to possibly lower the interest rate on excess reserves. There will no press briefing after this meeting - the next press conference is scheduled for Nov 2nd.

----- Thursday, Sept 22nd -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a decrease to 420,000 from 428,000 last week.

10:00 AM: Conference Board Leading Indicators for August. The consensus is for no change for this index.

10:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for July 2011. This is based on GSE repeat sales and is no longer as closely followed as Case-Shiller (or CoreLogic).

Expected: The Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices (commercial real estate price index) for July.

----- Friday, Sept 23rd -----

1:30 PM: New York Fed President William Dudley speaks at the Bretton Woods meeting: "Financial Stability and Economic Growth" (part of the IMF/World Bank annual meetings).