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Wednesday, September 14, 2011

First September Surveys

by Calculated Risk on 9/14/2011 11:41:00 PM

Tomorrow we will see if there is any improvement from the dismal August readings for both the Philly Fed and NY Fed (Empire state) manufacturing surveys. On Friday, the preliminary Reuters/University of Mich Consumer Sentiment for September will be released.

Thursday at 8:30 AM ET: NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of -3.6, up from -7.7 in August (above zero is expansion).

10:00 AM: Philly Fed Survey for September. This index fell off a cliff in August. The consensus is for a reading of -15.0 (above zero indicates expansion), up from -30.7 last month.

Friday at 9:55 AM: Reuters/University of Mich Consumer Sentiment preliminary for September. The consensus is for a slight increase to 56.0 from 55.7 in August.

Last month I argued the sharp decline in sentiment - from an already low level - might be due to the debt ceiling debate. I looked at some of the previous spikes down in sentiment due to fairly short term events - and those events suggested sentiment should recover in 2 to 4 months. So maybe in October or November - but it is too early in September.

Of course sentiment - and the manufacturing surveys - could have declined because of other factors (weak labor market, European financial crisis, etc), and then the surveys might remain weak. We will get our first look tomorrow.