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Sunday, August 21, 2011

Update on Gasoline Prices

by Calculated Risk on 8/21/2011 09:38:00 AM

With the recent decline in oil prices, most analysts are forecasting a sharp decline in gasoline prices over the next few weeks. (Update: the graph shows WTI, but gasoline prices are impacted by Brent international prices - and Brent hasn't fallen as far as WTI).

Gasoline prices jumped from about $3.10 per gallon in early February to over $3.50 per gallon in early March as WTI oil prices increased from about $84 per barrel to over $100 per barrel. Since oil prices have declined back to the early February levels (Bloomberg: WTI is at $82 per barrel and Brent is at $108), gasoline prices will probably decline too.

Note: Professor Hamilton recently noted an asymmetric response to changes in oil prices ("although oil price increases were often associated with economic recessions, oil price decreases did not bring about corresponding economic booms."). But a decline in gasoline prices will help a little.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by

Summary for Week ending August 19th (with plenty of graphs)
Schedule for Week of Aug 21st