Thursday, August 04, 2011

LPS: Foreclosure Starts Increased in June

by Calculated Risk on 8/04/2011 05:57:00 PM

LPS Applied Analytics released their June Mortgage Performance data. From LPS:

The June Mortgage Monitor report released by Lender Processing Services, Inc. (NYSE: LPS) shows that, while still down 16.4 percent from the start of the year, foreclosure starts increased by more than 10 percent in June 2011. Delinquencies were also up, but incrementally, showing a 2.4 percent increase over May. As of the end of June, 4.1 million loans were either 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure, representing a 12.8 percent increase since June 2010.

Foreclosure timelines continue their upward trajectory, with the average loan in foreclosure having been delinquent for a record 587 days. More than 40 percent of 90+-day delinquencies have not made a payment in more than a year. For loans in foreclosure, 35 percent have been delinquent for more than two years.

Looking at the differences between judicial and non-judicial foreclosure states, the LPS data shows that the foreclosure pipeline ratio – that is, the number of loans either 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure divided by the six-month average of foreclosure sales – is more than three times as high for judicial foreclosure states. Additionally, the slowdown associated with foreclosure moratoria has been almost exclusively felt in judicial states.
According to LPS, 8.15% of mortgages were delinquent in June, up from 7.96% in May, and down from 9.55% in June 2010.

LPS reports that 4.12% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, up slightly from 4.11% in May, and up from 3.66% in June 2010. This gives a total of 12.27% delinquent or in foreclosure. It breaks down as:

• 2.38 million loans less than 90 days delinquent.
• 1.91 million loans 90+ days delinquent.
• 2.17 million loans in foreclosure process.

For a total of 6.45 million loans delinquent or in foreclosure in June.

Delinquency Rate Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the total delinquent and in-foreclosure rates since 1995.

The total delinquent rate has fallen to 8.15% from the peak in January 2010 of 10.97%. A normal rate is probably in the 4% to 5% range, so there is a long long ways to go.

However the in-foreclosure rate at 4.12% is barely below the peak rate of 4.21% in March 2011. There are still a large number of loans in this category (about 2.17 million) - and the average loan in foreclosure has been delinquent for a record 587 days!

Days in Foreclosure This graph provided by LPS Applied Analytics shows the days delinquent for the loans in foreclosure.

About 35% of those 2.17 million loans in the foreclosure process have not made a payment in over 2 years. Another 34% have not made a payment in over a year (but less than 2 years). That is around 1.5 million properties.

Many of these long term in-foreclosure properties are in judicial states.

Foreclosure SalesThe third graph shows foreclosure sales by the previous month's delinquency bucket.

Foreclosure sales are down compared to last year, regardless of time in delinquency - although sales are slowly picking up. Also the servicers are foreclosing a lower percentage of long term in-foreclosure properties - these long term in-foreclosure properties are just hanging over the housing market (mostly in judicial states like Florida).