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Tuesday, August 09, 2011

FOMC Meeting Thoughts

by Calculated Risk on 8/09/2011 12:31:00 PM

The FOMC statement will be released around 2:15 PM ET today. This is a one day meeting of the FOMC and there will be no press briefing.

I posted some thoughts yesterday and here are few other articles:

• From Binyamin Appelbaum at the NY Times: Fed’s Elusive Prescriptions for an Erratic Ailment

Most public attention has focused on the possibility that the Fed will renew its asset purchases ... Instead, the Fed is more likely to begin any renewed aid campaign with smaller gestures.

The most basic measure available to the Fed is to promise that it will keep interest rates near zero for at least six months, or a year, or some other specified period of time.
The Fed also could make a similar commitment for the first time regarding its huge investment portfolio ... a promise about the portfolio also would extend the Fed’s commitment to maintain low rates.
Another available option would be to maintain the size of the portfolio, but to shift its composition toward bonds with longer terms.
• From Patti Domm at CNBC: Fed Under Pressure to Soothe Markets
Economists have speculated the Fed could also reaffirm in its statement that it will hold rates low for an extended time, and it could also vow to keep its balance sheet extended, at nearly $3 trillion for a long period of time.

The Fed also could cut the interest rate on reserves from 0.25 percent to zero.

But it is not likely the Fed will embark any time soon on another quantitative easing program.
• From Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: Fed Has Some Tricks Left, but None Are Magic

An announcement of QE3 seems extremely unlikely for the reasons I mentioned yesterday. Obviously the wording of the statement will change, and maybe the FOMC will commit to a longer "extended period", or commit to hold their investment portfolio for an extended period - or some of the other changes mentioned above.