by Calculated Risk on 7/05/2011 06:57:00 PM

From Ronald White at the LA Times: Gas prices aren't likely to drop much more this summer

California's average price fell 4.5 cents a gallon in the last week ... Prices have dropped an average of 46.3 cents a gallon since May 2, the [Energy Department's Energy Information Administration ]said.

Nationally, the price rose an average of 0.5 cent to $3.579 a gallon, largely because of continuing problems with refineries in the Midwest ... The national average peaked at $3.965 a gallon on May 9.

The gasbuddy.com data shows a similar decline (graph below).

This price decline is good news, but it just takes us back close to the March levels - when it appeared gasoline prices were already a drag on economic activity. That is when Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) growth slowed, and consumer sentiment fell sharply.

Still this is better than $4 per gallon ...

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com