Friday, July 15, 2011

Empire State Survey indicates contraction, Core CPI increases 0.3 percent

by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2011 08:30:00 AM

• From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey

The July Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers deteriorated for a second consecutive month. The general business conditions index remained below zero, at -3.8.

The new orders index also remained negative, while the shipments index increased to a level slightly above zero. The indexes for both prices paid and prices received were positive but lower than last month, suggesting that price increases slowed. The index for number of employees fell to a level near zero, indicating that employment levels held steady, while the average workweek index dropped well into negative territory. Future indexes bounced up after declining steeply in June—a sign that conditions were generally expected to improve over the next six months—but the level of optimism was well below the levels observed earlier this year.
The index increased from -7.8 in June, but was well below expectations of a reading of 8.0. This is the first regional survey released for July and shows that manufacturing in the NY region is still contracting.

From the BLS:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.2 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. ... The gasoline index declined sharply in June, falling 6.8 percent. ... In contrast, the index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3 percent for the second consecutive month.
Headline CPI declined because of the sharp decline in gasoline prices, but the core index increased 0.3 percent and is now up 1.6 percent over the last year. I'll have more on inflation later.