by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2011 05:51:00 PM

I've been following the Sacramento market to see the change in mix over time (conventional, REOs, and short sales) in a distressed area. The Sacramento Association of REALTORS® started breaking out REOs in May 2008, and short sales in June 2009.

I'm not exactly sure what I'm looking for, but hopefully I'll know it when I see it! As some point, the number (and percent) of distressed sales will start to decline without foreclosure moratoria, homebuyer tax credits or other distortions. There is no sign of a decline yet (except seasonal).

The percent of distressed sales in Sacramento declined slightly in June compared to May because of a seasonal pickup in conventional sales. In June 2011, 65.2% of all resales (single family homes and condos) were distressed sales. This is down from 65.6% in May, and up from 62.4% in June 2010.

Here are the statistics.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the percent of REO, short sales and conventional sales. There is a seasonal pattern for conventional sales (strong in the spring and summer), and distressed sales happen all year - so the percentage of distressed sales decreases every summer.

Notes: Prior to June 2009, it is unclear if short sales were included as REO or as "conventional" - or some of both. The tax credits might have also boosted conventional sales in 2009 and early 2010.