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Saturday, June 25, 2011

Schedule for Week of June 26th

by Calculated Risk on 6/25/2011 05:55:00 PM

Summary for Week Ending June 24th
Unofficial Problem Bank list at 1,001 Institutions and Transition Matrix

This will be busy week for economic data. The key releases will be the ISM manufacturing index on Friday, Case-Shiller house prices (April) on Tuesday, and auto sales on Friday.

Some of these releases will show ongoing weakness such as the ISM manufacturing index and the Chicago PMI. The regional surveys suggest the ISM index will be in the low 50s – or possibly below 50 in June (below 50 would indicate contraction for manufacturing).

However other releases might show some improvement such as auto sales and pending home sales. Of special interest will be the Case-Shiller index for April (a three month average of prices in February, March and April). Other house price indexes have indicated prices increased in April, however, because of the averaging, Case-Shiller might still show a decline.

----- Monday, June 27th -----

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for May. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through April (2005 dollars).

Personal Consumption ExpendituresClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

PCE increased 0.4% in April, but real PCE only increased 0.1% as the price index for PCE increased 0.3 percent in April.

The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income in May, and a 0.1% increase in personal spending, and for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for June. The Texas production index increased to 12.7 in May from 8.1 in April.

----- Tuesday, June 28th -----

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for April. Although this is the April report, it is really a 3 month average of February, March and April.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

House prices have continued to decline, and the Composite 20 index hit a new post-bubble low in March. The consensus is for prices to decline about 0.3% in April, however other indexes suggest the decline will be less (or even an increase).

10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for June. The consensus is for a slight increase to 61.0 from 60.8 last month, possibly due to slightly lower gasoline prices.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey for June. The consensus is for the survey to show modest contraction with a reading of -2.

----- Wednesday, June 29th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been very weak over the last couple months suggesting weak home sales through early summer (not counting all cash purchases).

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for May. The consensus is for a 2% decrease in the index, however economist Tom Lawler is forecasting a possible double digit increase.

----- Thursday, June 30th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The number of claims has been elevated for the last couple of months. The consensus is for a decrease to 420,000 from 429,000 last week.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June. The consensus is for a decrease to 54.0, down from 56.6 in May.

11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for June. The index was at 1 in May, down from 14 in April.

----- Friday, July 1st -----

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for May. The consensus is for no change in construction spending.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for a decrease to 51.7 from 53.5 in May. Based on the regional manufacturing surveys, the ISM index could be below 50 for June (indicating contraction).

All day: Light vehicle sales for June. Light vehicle sales are expected to increase to 12.0 million (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), from 11.8 million in May.

Vehicle SalesThis graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the May sales rate.

Edmunds is forecasting:
The estimated sales volume translates to a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 11.9 million in June, according to analysts. Even with SAAR coming in below 12 million for the second month in a row, continues to project an annual SAAR of 12.9 light vehicle sales overall in 2011.
The supply chain disruption is impacting sales, however sales will probably pick up in Q3.

9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for June). The consensus is for a slight increase to 72.0 from the preliminary reading of 71.8.

Best wishes to All!