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Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Core Measures of Inflation increased in May

by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2011 12:43:00 PM

Earlier today the BLS reported:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in May after increasing 0.1 percent in March and 0.2 percent in April. The shelter index rose 0.2 percent in May after increasing 0.1 percent in each of the seven previous months. Both rent and owners' equivalent rent rose 0.1 percent; the acceleration in shelter was due to the index for lodging away from home, which rose 2.9 percent in May after being unchanged in April.
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.1% annualized rate) in May. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% (2.8% annualized rate) during the month.
Over the last 12 months, core CPI has increased 1.5%, median CPI has increased 1.5%, and trimmed-mean CPI increased 1.9%.

Note: The Cleveland Fed has a discussion of a number of measures of inflation: Measuring Inflation

Inflation Measures Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows these three measure of inflation on a year-over-year basis.

These measures all show that year-over-year inflation is still low, but increasing.

Note: You can see the median CPI details for May here.

Although the year-over-year increases are below the Fed's inflation target, the annualized rates were above the target in May. However, with the slack in the system, the year-over-year core measures will probably stay near or be below 2% this year.

NAHB Builder Confidence index declines in June
Industrial Production edged up in May, Capacity Utilization unchanged
Empire State Survey indicates contraction
MBA: Mortgage Purchase Application activity increases