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Sunday, May 01, 2011

Schedule for Week of May 1st

by Calculated Risk on 5/01/2011 08:15:00 AM

The key report for this week will be the April employment report to be released on Friday, May 6th. The ISM manufacturing report will be released on Monday, and the ISM non-manufacturing report on Wednesday. There are several Fed speeches this week (only a few are included below). Also the automakers report on vehicle sales on Tuesday.

----- Monday, May 2nd -----

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for April. The consensus is for a decrease to a still strong reading of 59.5 from 61.2 in March.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for March. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in construction spending.

2:00 PM: The April 2011 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices from the Federal Reserve. The January survey indicated some slight easing of standards and more demand for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans over the fourth quarter. For other types of loans to businesses and households, the January survey indicated banks have stopped tightening standards (they are already very tight), and demand has stopped falling (there is little demand for loans).

----- Tuesday, May 3rd -----

All day: Light vehicle sales for April. Light vehicle sales are expected to decrease to 13.0 million (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), from 13.1 million in March. The impact of the supply chain disruption is a big unknown.

Vehicle Sales This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the March sales rate.

Edmunds is forecasting: " analysts predict that April's Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) will be 13.3 million, up from 13.1 in March 2011.

“As inventories rapidly deteriorate, April could be the last month that we’ll see strong sales numbers until late summer or early fall,” said Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell."

10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders for March. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in orders.

----- Wednesday, May 4th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been very weak over the last couple months suggesting weak home sales through the first few months of 2011.

8:00 AM: Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren speaks before the NAIOP Commercial Real Estate Development Association

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for April. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for +195,000 payroll jobs in April, down slightly from the 201,000 reported in March.

10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for April.

ISM Non-Manufacturing IndexThis graph shows the ISM non-manufacturing index (started in January 2008) and the ISM non-manufacturing employment diffusion index. The March ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 57.3% in March. The employment index indicated slower expansion in March at 53.7%.

The consensus is for a slight increase in April to 58.0.

3:00 PM: San Francisco Fed President John Williams gives his first policy speech on "Maintaining Price Stability in a Global Economy" in Los Angeles.

----- Thursday, May 5th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The number of claims has increased over the last few weeks. The consensus is for a decrease to 410,000 from 429,000 last week.

9:00 AM: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, "Implementing a Macroprudential Approach to Supervision and Regulation" in Chicago.

----- Friday, May 6th -----

8:30 AM: Employment Report for April.

Payroll Jobs per Month The consensus is for an increase of 185,000 non-farm payroll jobs in April, down slightly from the 216,000 added in March.

This graph shows the net payroll jobs per month (excluding temporary Census jobs) since the beginning of the recession. The estimate for April is in blue.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to remain at 8.8% in April.

Percent Job Losses During RecessionsThe second employment graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through March - aligned at maximum job losses.

This shows the severe job losses during the recent recession - there are currently 7.25 million fewer jobs in the U.S. than when the recession started.

3:00 PM: Consumer Credit in March from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is for credit to increase $5 billion.

Best wishes to All!