Thursday, May 26, 2011

Q1 real GDP growth unrevised at 1.8% annualized rate

by Calculated Risk on 5/26/2011 09:00:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2011 (second estimate)

This was below the consensus forecast of an upward revision to 2.1%, and the details were weaker. Overall GDP growth was unrevised in the second estimate, although Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) growth was revised down, mostly offset by an increase in the "Change in private inventories". (see table at bottom for changes in contribution to GDP).

The following graph shows the quarterly GDP growth (at an annual rate) for the last 30 years. The current quarter is in blue.

GDP Growth Rate Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The dashed line is the current growth rate. Growth in Q1 at 1.8% annualized was below trend growth (around 3.1%) - and very weak for a recovery, especially with all the slack in the system.

The following table shows the changes from the advance release (this is the Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product).

Contributions to Percent Change in Q1 Real Gross Domestic Product
 2nd EstimateAdvanceChange
Percent change at annual rate:    
Gross domestic product1.81.80.0
Percentage points at annual rates:    
Personal consumption expenditures..1.531.91-0.4
Goods0.831.12-0.3
Durable goods0.660.78-0.1
Nondurable goods0.170.34-0.2
Services0.690.80-0.1
Gross private domestic investment1.451.010.4
Fixed investment0.260.090.2
Nonresidential0.330.180.2
Structures-0.48-0.630.2
Equipment and software0.810.800.0
Residential-0.07-0.090.0
Change in private inventories1.190.930.3
Net exports of goods and services-0.06-0.080.0
Exports1.160.640.5
Imports-1.22-0.72-0.5
Government consumption expenditures-1.07-1.090.0
Federal-0.68-0.680.0
National defense-0.68-0.690.0
Nondefense0.000.000.0
State and local-0.39-0.410.0