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Sunday, April 24, 2011

Schedule for Week of April 24th

by Calculated Risk on 4/24/2011 08:12:00 AM

Summary for Week ending April 22nd
FOMC Preview

The key economic report for the coming week is the Q1 advance GDP report to be released on Thursday. There are also two important housing reports to be released early in the week: New Home sales on Monday and Case-Shiller house prices on Tuesday. The FOMC will hold a 2 day meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a press briefing on Wednesday.

----- Monday, April 25th -----

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for March from the Census Bureau.

New Home Sales and RecessionsClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

The consensus is for an increase in sales to 280 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in March from a record low 250 thousand in February.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for April. The Texas production index increased to 24.1 in March, its highest level in nearly a year (from 10.0 in February).

----- Tuesday, April 26th -----

9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for February. Although this is the February report, it is really a 3 month average of December, January and February. The consensus is for prices to decline about 0.4% in February; the eight straight month of house price declines.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices This graph shows the seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices through January (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

Prices are falling again, although still above the lows set in early 2009. The Composite 20 index should be close to the post-bubble low in February.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April. The consensus is for the index to be at 20, the same as in March (above zero is expansion).

10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for April. The consensus is for an increase to 64.4 from 63.4 last month.

----- Wednesday, April 27th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has increased slightly in recent weeks, but is still at 1997 levels.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 2.0% increase in durable goods orders after decreasing 0.9% in February.

10:00 AM: Q1 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau.

Homeownership Rate The homeownership rate was at 66.5% in Q4 2010, down from 66.9% in Q3. This is at about the level as 1998.

The homeownership rate peaked at 69.2% in Q4 2004.

Also important are the homeowner and rental vacancy rates.

12:30PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No changes are expected to either interest rates or QE2.

2:15 PM: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke holds press briefing on FOMC meeting. Here is a preview of the FOMC meeting.

----- Thursday, April 28th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The number of initial claims has been trending down over the last few months, however initial claims increased to over 400 thousand for the last two weeks. The consensus is for a decrease to 390 thousand compared to 403 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Q1 GDP (advance release). This is the advance release from the BEA.

GDP Growth Rate This graph shows the quarterly GDP growth (at an annual rate) for the last 30 years.

The consensus is that real GDP increased 1.8% annualized in Q1. The estimate for Q1 is in blue.

The dashed line is the median growth rate of 3.05%.

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (March). This is a composite index of other data.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for March. The consensus is for a 1.5% increase in contracts signed. It usually takes 45 to 60 days to close, so this will provide an early indication of closings in April.

11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for April. The index was at a record 27 in March.

----- Friday, April 29th -----

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for March. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income and a 0.5% increase in personal spending, and for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for April. The consensus is for a slight decrease to a still very strong 69.2 (down from 70.6 in March).

9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for April). The consensus is for an increase to 70.0 from the preliminary reading of 69.6.

12:30 PM: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks, "Community Development in Challenging Times" in Arlington, Virginia

Best Wishes to All!