In Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Thursday, March 03, 2011

Misc: Fed Watch, Merle Hazard, Employment and more

by Calculated Risk on 3/03/2011 10:00:00 PM

• Earlier Employment Situation Preview: Some Improvement, but Still Grim.

• From Tim Duy's Fed Watch: Game Changers?

All in all, incoming data reinforce my sense that the upside and downside risks to the forecast are intensifying, which could make for a very interesting few months. ... The possibility of some real game changing developments is at hand. At this moment, I think the balance of risks are now on the upside, but am very, very conscious of how quickly that balance can change in the wake of a commodity price shock. I would be wary about letting the depth of this recession interfere with your read of the data, just as wary as you should be about letting the data tempt you from thinking it is time to push stimulative policies into reverse.
CR: There are several downside risks: higher oil prices or even a supply shock, the European financial crisis, state and local government fiscal issues, and two sides of the inflation coin (inflation spreads or policymakers overreact). We live in interesting times!

• Some interesting thoughts on retail space, from the WSJ: As Big Boxes Shrink, They Also Rethink
Major big-box retailers have been shifting to smaller stores—and scratching around for more profitable ways to fill under-used spaces as they go about reinventing themselves.

Some are becoming landlords, turning excess space over to other businesses.
• Last month Paul Solman at PBS NewsHour Making Sen$e had a lyric contest. Here is the song from Merle Hazard to Paul Simon's The 59th Street Bridge Song (Feelin' Groovy)