Monday, March 21, 2011

Chicago Fed: Economic Growth Near Average in February

by Calculated Risk on 3/21/2011 08:30:00 AM

Note: This is a composite index based on a number of economic releases.

From the Chicago Fed: Economic Growth Near Average in February

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index ticked down to –0.04 in February from –0.01 in January. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index made positive contributions in February, but for the second consecutive month they were offset by continued weakness in the consumption and housing category.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.11 in February from +0.05 in January, coming in positive for two consecutive months for the first time since April and May of 2010. February’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was slightly above its historical trend. With regard to inflation, the CFNAI-MA3 indicates limited inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967. According to the Chicago Fed:
A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.
This index suggests the economy was growing near average in February.

Weekend:
Summary for Week ending March 18th
• Some preliminary Census 2010 Housing Vacancy Data.
Schedule for Week of March 20th