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Saturday, February 12, 2011

Schedule for Week of February 13th

by Calculated Risk on 2/12/2011 05:10:00 PM

The key releases this week will be retail sales on Tuesday, industrial production on Wednesday, and the consumer price index on Thursday. For housing, the NHAB housing market index will be released on Tuesday, and housing starts on Wednesday.

----- Monday, Feb 14th -----

Morning: New York Fed Q4 Report on Household Debt and Credit

10:00 AM ET: NY Fed President William Dudley speaks in New York, Q1 2011, Household Debt & Economic Activity

----- Tuesday, Feb 15th -----

8:30 AM: Retail Sales for January.

Retail SalesClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales in December were up 13.5% from the bottom, and were 0.2% above the pre-recession peak.

The consensus is for a 0.5% increase from December. (and 0.5% increase ex-auto). Sales were probably boosted in January by the payroll tax cut.

8:30 AM: NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for February. The consensus is for a reading of 15.0, up from the reading of 11.92 in January. The regional surveys have been showing fairly strong manufacturing activity recently.

10 AM: The February NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 17, up slightly from 16 in January. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. This index has been below 25 for the last 3 1/2 years.

10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales for December. The consensus is for 0.7% increase in inventories.

10:00 AM: Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto speaks in Akron, Ohio, "Regional and National Economic Conditions"

----- Wednesday, Feb 16th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: Producer Price Index for January. The consensus is for a 0.8% increase in producer prices.

8:30 AM: Housing Starts for January. After collapsing following the housing bubble, housing starts have mostly moved sideways at a very depressed level for the last two years.

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts This graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

Total housing starts were at 529 thousand (SAAR) in December, and single-family starts were at a 417 thousand rate - the lowest level since early 2009.

The consensus is for a slight increase to 540,000 (SAAR) in January.

9:15 AM ET: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for January. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in Industrial Production in January, and an increase to 76.3% (from 76.0%) for Capacity Utilization.

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of January 25-26, 2011. This will include updated forecasts of GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation.

----- Thursday, Feb 17th -----

8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index for January.

Inflation MeasuresThis graph shows these three measure of inflation - core CPI, median CPI and trimmed-mean CPI - on a year-over-year basis. They all show that inflation has been falling, and that measured inflation is up less than 1% year-over-year.

The consensus is for a 0.3% increase for CPI in January and for core CPI to show an increase of 0.1%.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 410,000 from 383,000 last week that was probably low because of weather issues.

10:00 AM: Philly Fed Survey for February. The consensus is for a reading of 21.0, up slightly from the 19.3 in January.

10:00 AM: Conference Board Leading Indicators for January. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase for this index.

10:00 AM: Testimony, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, "Implementation of the Dodd-Frank Act" Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate

11:30 AM: Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart asks questions of Ireland Ambassador to the U.S., "Ireland and the U.S. Roads to Recovery,"

1:10 PM: Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks on "Federal Reserve Functions and Economic Update"

1:20 PM: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on the economic outlook

----- Friday, Feb 18th -----

8:00 AM ET: Panel Discussion, Chairman Ben Bernanke, Global Imbalances and Financial Stability, At the Banque de France Financial Stability Review Launch Event, Paris, France

After 4:00 PM: The FDIC might have a busy Friday afternoon ...