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Saturday, January 22, 2011

Schedule for Week of January 23rd

by Calculated Risk on 1/22/2011 06:27:00 PM

The key economic report for the coming week is the Q4 advance GDP report to be released on Friday. There are also two important housing reports to be released early in the week: Case-Shiller house prices on Tuesday, and New Home sales on Wednesday. There is also a two day FOMC meeting ending on Wednesday.

----- Monday, Jan 24th -----

Morning: Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) for November.

----- Tuesday, Jan 25th -----

9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for November. Although this is the November report, it is really a 3 month average of September, October and November. The consensus is for prices to decline about 1.0% in November; the fifth straight month of house price declines.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices This graph shows the seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices through October (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

Prices are falling again, although still above the lows set in early 2009. The Composite 20 index should be close to the post-bubble low in November.

10:00 AM Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for December 2010

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January. The consensus is for the index to be slightly lower than last month at 22 (above zero is expansion).

10:00 AM: 10:00 FHFA House Price Index for November. This is based on GSE repeat sales and is no longer as closely followed as Case-Shiller (or CoreLogic).

10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for January. The consensus is for an increase to 54.2 from 52.5 last month.

9:00 PM: 2011 State of the Union Address

----- Wednesday, Jan 26th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index increased slightly at the end of last year, and has declined slightly early this year.

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for December from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for an increase in sales to 300 thousand (SAAR) in December from 290 thousand in November.

New Home Sales and Recessions This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales collapsed in May and have averaged only 289 thousand (SAAR) over the last seven months. Prior to the last seven months, the record low was 338 thousand in Sept 1981.

2:15 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No changes are expected to either interest rates or QE2.

----- Thursday, Jan 27th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The number of initial claims has been trending down over the last few months. The consensus is for a slight increase to 409 thousand compared to 404 thousand last week.

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (December). This is a composite index of other data.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for December from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.5% decrease in durable goods orders after decreasing 1.3% in November.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for December. The consensus is for a 1% increase in contracts signed. It usually takes 45 to 60 days to close, so this will provide an early indication of closings in February.

11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for January. The index was at 21 in December.

----- Friday, Jan 28th -----

8:30 AM: Q4 GDP (advance release). This is the advance release from the BEA, and the consensus is that real GDP increased 3.5% annualized in Q4.

9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for January). The consensus is for an increase to 73.1 from the preliminary reading of 72.7.

Best Wishes to All!