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Monday, January 03, 2011

House Prices: More Pessimistic Views

by Calculated Risk on 1/03/2011 10:15:00 PM

From CNBC: Home Prices Will Decline for Years: Zuckerman (ht Scott)

Mort Zuckerman ... blamed the continuing price decline on the so-called shadow inventory of foreclosed homes that's yet to come on the market.

“That’s what’s going to put downward pressure on residential prices,” Zuckerman added, “And in my judgment, that’s going to continue for several years.”
And from MarketWatch: S&P warns on ‘shadow inventory’ (ht jb)
Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said Monday that it’s taking longer for the U.S. housing market to absorb foreclosed homes, which means there may be a major drag on prices for a few more years.
My view is house prices - as measured by the Case-Shiller and CoreLogic repeat sales indexes - will decline another 5% to 10%. I think it is likely that nominal house prices will bottom in 2011, but that real house prices (inflation adjusted) will decline for another two to three years. (See: Question #1 for 2011: House Prices)