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Monday, November 15, 2010

Philly Fed: Forecasters still catching up

by Calculated Risk on 11/15/2010 02:35:00 PM

This is interesting because these forecasters are still catching up with the slowdown.

From the Philly Fed: Forecasters Predict Further Slowdown in Economic Recovery

The pace of recovery in output and employment in the U.S. economy looks a little slower now than it did three months ago, according to 43 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The panel expects real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 2.2 percent this quarter, down from the previous estimate of 2.8 percent. [CR Note: I'll take the under for Q4]
The forecasters predict real GDP will grow 2.5 percent in 2011, 2.9 percent in 2012, and 3.0 percent in 2013.
The forecasters also predict weaker recovery in the labor market. Unemployment is projected to be an annual average of 9.7 percent in 2010, before falling to 9.3 percent in 2011, 8.7 percent in 2012, and 7.9 percent in 2013. These estimates are higher than the projections in the last survey. On the employment front, the forecasters have revised downward the growth in jobs over the next four quarters. The forecasters see nonfarm payroll employment growing at a rate of 86,600 jobs per month this quarter and 104,200 jobs per month next quarter.
The current outlook for the headline and core measures of CPI and PCE inflation in 2011 and 2012 is lower than it was in the last survey.
The real GDP projections and the unemployment rate forecasts are a little inconsistent. If GDP grows at these rates, the unemployment rate will probably be higher than these projections through 2013.