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Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Lawler: "Early read" on September Existing Home Sales

by Calculated Risk on 10/12/2010 03:55:00 PM

CR Note: This is from housing economist Tom Lawler:

While as always results vary by area, on balance most local realtors/MLS are reporting significant YOY home sales declines for September sales. However, it’s important to remember that last September home sales were “goosed” a bit by the federal home buyer tax credit, which was set to expire at the end of November. Existing home sales ran at an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.6 million last September, compared to 5.1 million in August 2009.

While I only have data on a relatively small part of the country, right now I estimate that existing home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about 4.50 million, up almost 9% from the August [2010] pace [of 4.13 million SAAR].

CR Note: This would put the months of supply around 10.3 months in September based on an estimate of 3.85 million for inventory.

Note: It is too soon for any impact on sales from "Foreclosure-Gate".

Existing home sales for September will be released on Monday October 25th at 10 AM ET.