Thursday, October 14, 2010

Friday Preview: Bernanke, Retail Sales, CPI, and more

by Calculated Risk on 10/14/2010 07:43:00 PM

Friday will be really busy with several key releases, many at the same time (8:30 AM ET).

I'll start off posting Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech, and I'll probably wait a little while to post on retail sales (Bernanke will probably discuss QE2, but I think he might outline what the Fed will do if QE2 doesn't achieve the desired goals).

On CPI, the release tomorrow will confirm that there will be no increase in Social Security benefits in 2011 - and no increase in the maximum contribution base ($106,800 same as in 2009 and 2010). For an explanation, see: No increase to Social Security Benefits for 2011 (unofficial)

Here is the economic release schedule for tomorrow ...

8:15 AM ET: Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will speak at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference "Monetary Policy Objectives and Tools in a Low-Inflation Environment"

8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index for September. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in prices. This is being closely watched for further disinflation, and also because Q3 is the quarter the annual annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is calculated for Social Security (this will make it official that there will be no change in 2011).

8:30 AM: Retail Sales for September. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase from August.

8:30 AM: Empire Manufacturing Survey for October. The consensus is for a reading of 8.0, up from 4.1 in September. These regional surveys have been showing a slowdown in manufacturing and are being closely watched right now.

9:15 AM: Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart participates in a question-and-answer session on the economy in Atlanta.

9:55 AM: Reuters/University of Mich Consumer Sentiment preliminary for October. The consensus is for a slight increase to 69.0 from 68.2 in September.

10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales for August. Consensus is for a 0.4% increase in inventories in August.