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Wednesday, September 01, 2010

Some comments on August ISM Manufacturing Index

by Calculated Risk on 9/01/2010 12:15:00 PM

The Institute for Supply Management reported this morning that the PMI increased to 56.3 from 55.5 in July. Expectations were for a decrease to 53.0.

ISM PMI and Fed Manufacturing Surveys Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Here is an update to the graph showing the regional Fed manufacturing surveys and the ISM index through August.

The Fed surveys suggested that the ISM index would probably decline, but the relationship is noisy. Based on this graph I'd expect either the Fed surveys to bounce back in September - or the ISM to decline.

ISM PMI Aug 2010 Here is a long term graph that hopefully puts the uptick in August in perspective.

In addition to the increase in the PMI, the production index increased to 59.9 from 57.0, and the employment index increased from 58.6 in July to 60.4. That suggests increased manufacturing employment in August.

However the new orders index declined in August to 53.1 from 53.5 in July (still expanding, but at a slower pace). And the inventory index was up for the 2nd month in a row to 51.4.

This report was somewhat better than expected, but I still expect the index to decline over the next couple of months.