Sunday, August 15, 2010

Weekly Schedule for August 15th

by Bill McBride on 8/15/2010 03:20:00 PM

Note: Earlier I posted the summary of last week. I'm going to split the summary and schedule into two posts because it was getting too long!

Two key housing reports will be released this week: July housing starts (Tuesday) and August homebuilder confidence (Monday). Also the Fed will release July industrial production and capacity utilization (Tuesday).

----- Monday -----

8:30 AM ET: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (August). This index fell sharply over the last few months, although it still showed expansion. The consensus is for a slight increase in August to 8.0 from 5.1 in July.

10 AM: The August NAHB homebuilder survey. This index has collapsed since the expiration of the home buyer tax credit. The consensus is for a slight increase to 15 from 14 in July (still very depressed).

----- Tuesday -----

8:30 AM: Housing Starts for July. Housing starts collapsed in June following the expiration of the tax credit. The consensus is for a slight increase to 565K (SAAR) in July from 549K in June.

8:30 AM: Producer Price Index for July. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase, and +0.1% for core PPI.

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for July. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in Industrial Production, and an increase to 74.5% (from 74.1%) for Capacity Utilization.

9:00 AM to 1:30 PM: Conference on the Future of Housing Finance. According to the agenda: "This event will provide a forum for public input as the Administration continues its work developing a comprehensive housing finance reform proposal for delivery to Congress by January 2011."

12:30 PM: Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota speaks about the FOMC at Northern University of Michigan.

Note: The Q2 Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design will also be released

----- Wednesday -----

Early: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for July will be released (a leading indicator for commercial real estate). This has been showing ongoing contraction, and usually this leads investment in non-residential structures (hotels, malls, office) by 9 to 12 months.

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index declined sharply following the expiration of the tax credit, and the index has only recovered slightly over the last few weeks - suggesting reported home sales in July and August will be very weak.

----- Thursday -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Consensus is for a slight decrease to 480K from 484K last week. If so, this will push the 4-week average to the highest level this year.

10:00 AM: Conference Board's index of leading indicators for July. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in this index.

10:00 AM: Philly Fed Survey for August. This survey declined sharply over the last two months, although was still showing expansion (at a slower pace). The consensus is for a slight increase to 7.0 from 5.1 in July (still expanding, but slowly).

Lunch: St Louis Federal President James Bullard speaks on the economic outlook, and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks to reporters.

----- Friday -----

10:00 AM: the BLS will release the Regional and State Employment and Unemployment report for June.

After 4:00 PM: The FDIC will probably have another busy Friday afternoon ...

----- Unscheduled but likely -----

Making Home Affordable Program (HAMP) for July and the “Housing Scorecard”

CoreLogic House Price Index for June.

Moodys/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) for June.