by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2010 04:30:00 PM

This is the new UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce Index^TM

Press Release: PCI Climbs in July, Confirming Economy’s Slow but Steady Recovery

All signs continue to point to an economy in recovery with the latest release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management. The July PCI climbed 1.7 percent after dropping 1.9 percent in June.
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“The key takeaway from the July report is that the economy continues to recover – which is encouraging – but the pace needs to substantially pick up to put people back to work,” said Ed Leamer, chief PCI economist. “With the unemployment rate still at 9.5 percent and consumers understandably nervous about opening their wallets, it is hard to be very optimistic about economic growth. On the other hand, there is nothing about the PCI that is supportive of the pessimistic double-dip view.”
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The PCI is based on an analysis of real-time diesel fuel consumption data from over the road trucking tracked by Ceridian ...

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the index since January 1999.

This is a new index and doesn't have much of a track record in real time - although it appears to suggest that the sluggish recovery was continuing in July.