by Calculated Risk on 8/04/2010 02:17:00 PM

I usually use the light vehicle estimate from AutoData for the seasonally adjusted annual rate. Their estimate is usually very close, however since the BEA didn't put out the adjustment factors in advance, AutoData estimated sales at 12 million SAAR in July with a notice that this might be revised.

The BEA released the sales numbers this morning, and the sales rate was 11.52 million (below most analyst estimates). This is a significant difference and worth mentioning.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales (seasonally adjusted annual rate) from the BEA.

This was below most forecasts of around 11.6 to 11.8 million SAAR, and is below the levels of March and May earlier this year.