by Calculated Risk on 8/05/2010 05:11:00 PM
Thursday, August 05, 2010
My view is that the real GDP growth rate will slow in the 2nd half, and I've posted a list of the reasons over the last few months:
1) less Federal stimulus spending in the 2nd half of 2010,
2) the end of the inventory correction,
3) more household saving leading to slower growth in personal consumption expenditures,
4) another downturn in housing (lower prices, less residential investment),
5) slowdown in China and Europe and
6) cutbacks at the state and local level.
Note: The first half real GDP growth rate was reported as just over 3% annualized (before revisions).
There have been some updates:
Overall I still expect growth to slow in the 2nd half of 2010, but this lessens some of the expected drag or pushes it out to Q4 or 2011.