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Thursday, July 15, 2010

Philly Fed Index suggests "slowing" growth

by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2010 10:15:00 AM

Here is the Philadelphia Fed Index released today: Business Outlook Survey.

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from a reading of 8 in June to 5.1 in July. The index, although still positive and suggesting growth, has fallen for two consecutive months. Indexes for new orders and shipments also suggest a slowing this month: The new orders index fell 13 points, to its first negative reading in 12 months, and the shipments index decreased 10 points but remained positive. Indicating weakness, indexes for both delivery times and unfilled orders fell and were in negative territory this month.

Firms indicated a slight increase in employment this month.
On balance, firms reported declines in prices for their own manufactured goods.
emphasis added
Philly Fed Index Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the Philly index for the last 40 years.

The index has been positive for eleven months now, but turned down sharply in June and July.

These surveys are timely, but noisy. However this is further evidence that the manufacturing sector is slowing.