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Monday, July 19, 2010

NAHB Builder Confidence falls to lowest level since April 2009

by Calculated Risk on 7/19/2010 10:00:00 AM

Note: any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

Residential NAHB Housing Market Index Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the builder confidence index from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

The housing market index (HMI) was at 14 in June. This is the lowest level since April 2009.

The record low was 8 set in January 2009, but 14 is very low ...

HMI and Starts Correlation This second graph compares the NAHB HMI (left scale) with single family housing starts (right scale). This includes the July release for the HMI and the May data for starts (June starts will be released tomorrow).

This shows that the HMI and single family starts mostly move generally in the same direction - although there is plenty of noise month-to-month.

Press release from the NAHB: Builder Confidence Declines in July

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes declined for a second consecutive month in July to its lowest level since April of 2009, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. The HMI fell two points from a downwardly revised number in the previous month to 14 for July.
Each of the HMI's component indexes recorded declines in July. The component gauging current sales conditions fell two points to 15, while the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months edged down one point to 21 and the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers fell three points to 10.
This suggests futher declines in housing starts. The consensus is for a decrease to 580K (SAAR) in June from 593K in May. I'll take the under.