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Sunday, May 23, 2010

States: U-6 Unemployment Rate vs. Mortgage Delinquency Rate

by Calculated Risk on 5/23/2010 07:01:00 PM

Note: Earlier post is weekly summary and a look ahead (with plenty of interesting graphs!)

By request here is a scatter graph comparing the Q1 2010 delinquency rate for mortgage loans (including all loans in foreclosure) vs. the U-6 unemployment rate for all states. U-6 is available on a rolling four quarters basis from the BLS - and this is the 'Second Quarter of 2009 through First Quarter of 2010 Averages' data. (ht Keith for the data).

Note: The U-6 unemployment rate includes "total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers."

U-6 State Unemployment vs Mortgage delinquency Rate Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Ht Jeff to the labels!

The graph is pretty similar to the U-3 vs delinquency rate graph. R2 is higher using U-3 (0.52) than using U-6 (0.46), but that might be because of the lag of using a four quarter average.

Once again Florida and Nevada stand out. As I mentioned before, Florida has a high number of delinquencies because of state specific foreclosure laws - it takes forever to foreclose. The delinquency rate in Nevada is also very high, probably because of the large percentage of homeowners with negative equity. Both states might also have higher than expected delinquency rates because of significant investor activity during the housing bubble.

Another stand out is Oregon with a much higher U-6 than U-3.