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Sunday, November 29, 2009

Summary and a Look Ahead

by Calculated Risk on 11/29/2009 03:30:00 PM

The week will start with questions about Dubai, and a Treasury announcement on Monday about a plan to put pressure on lenders to complete modifications.

Trial Modifications Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph is from the most recent Making Home Affordable Program Report for October.

To put the numbers in perspective: as of the end of June (five months is up for those borrowers) there were 143,276 trial modifications, and a 50% conversion rate would be about 70,000 permanent modifications. Of course a 50% conversion rate would be considered dismal. So I'd expect the number of permanent modifications to be well in excess of 100,000 for those early trials, and if some later trial modifications were converted, perhaps many more. The data will probably be released the week of December 7th.

The big news later in the week will be the November employment report. In between will be the ISM reports (manufacturing and service), auto sales (on Tuesday), construction spending, other employment reports and more. An interesting week!

And a summary ...

  • Chicago Fed Activity Index

    From the Chicago Fed: Index shows economic activity leveled off in October
    The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.91 in October from –0.67 in September, declining for the first time in 2009. October’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity remained below its historical trend.
    Chicago Fed National Activity Index Click on table for larger image in new window.

    This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967. According to the Chicago Fed the index should move "significantly into positive territory a few months after the official NBER date of the trough" - and that hasn't happened yet.

  • Existing Home Sales increased Sharply in October

    Here is the NAR report: Existing-Home Sales Record Another Big Gain, Inventories Continue to Shrink

    Existing Home SalesThis graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

    Sales in Oct 2009 (6.10 million SAAR) were 10.1% higher than last month, and were 23% higher than Oct 2008 (4.94 million SAAR).

    For graph on Not Seasonally Adjust (NSA) sales, inventory and months of supply, see: Existing Home Sales Graphs

  • New Home Sales increase in October

    New Home Sales and Recessions The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 430 thousand. This is an increase from the revised rate of 405 thousand in September (revised from 402 thousand).

    This graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions for the last 45 years. New Home sales fell off a cliff, but are now 31% above the low in January. For inventory, NSA sales, and months of supply, see: New Home Sales in October

  • Case-Shiller House Prices increased in September

    Case-Shiller House Prices Indices This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

    The Composite 10 index is off 29.9% from the peak, and up about 0.4% in September.

    The Composite 20 index is off 29.1% from the peak, and up 0.3% in September.

    More on house prices: Case Shiller Home Price Graphs

  • Other Economic Stories ...
  • FDIC Q3 Banking Profile: 552 Problem Banks

  • First American CoreLogic Negative Equity Report for Q3
    "Nearly 10.7 million, or 23 percent, of all residential properties with mortgages were in negative equity as of September, 2009. An additional 2.3 million mortgages were approaching negative equity, meaning they had less than five percent equity. Together negative equity and near negative equity mortgages account for nearly 28 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage nationwide."
  • From the American Trucking Association: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Dipped 0.2 Percent in October

  • From the U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Up 34 Percent over Last Fiscal Year

  • $430 Billion in CRE Losses?

  • Scott Reckard at the LA Times has an overview: Few mortgages have been permanently modified

  • Unofficial Problem Bank List Increases Significantly
  • Best wishes to all.