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Thursday, September 24, 2009

Weekly Unemployment Claims Decline

by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2009 08:33:00 AM

The DOL reports weekly unemployment insurance claims decreased to 530,000:

In the week ending Sept. 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 530,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 551,000. The 4-week moving average was 553,500, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week's revised average of 564,500.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Sept. 12 was 6,138,000, a decrease of 123,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,261,000.
Weekly Unemployment Claims Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased this week by 11,000 to 553,500, and is now 105,250 below the peak in April.

Initial weekly claims have peaked for this cycle, however the continuing high level of weekly claims indicates significant weakness in the job market. The four-week average of initial weekly claims will probably have to fall below 400,000 before total employment stops falling.