Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Misc: A possible 1991 House Price Headline, and Falling Rents in NYC

by Calculated Risk on 8/25/2009 04:05:00 PM

Imagine a headline in June 1991 (if Case-Shiller was around):

"House Prices increase at 11.6% annualized rate in June!"

The horrible price declines were over ... right? Nope. Real house prices declined for almost another 5 years. Just something to remember.

From Bloomberg: NYC Apartment Rents Fall as Tenants Gain Leverage

In buildings attended by doormen, rents on one-bedroom apartments dropped 10 percent from a year earlier to an average of $3,274 a month, according to a report by the Real Estate Group of New York. Studio prices fell 7 percent at those properties to $2,329 and two-bedrooms declined almost 6.9 percent to $5,161.
Falling rents means a further decline in house prices to lower the price-to-rent ratio.

Stock Market Crashes
And a market graph from Doug Short. This matches up the market bottoms for four crashes (with an interim bottom for the Great Depression).

Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.