Monday, August 03, 2009

ISM Manufacturing Shows Contraction in July

by Bill McBride on 8/03/2009 10:00:00 AM

PMI at 48.9% up from 44.8% in June. Still contracting (below 50) but contracting at a slower pace.

From the Institute for Supply Management: July 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector failed to grow in July for the 18th consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the third consecutive month following seven months of decline, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The decline in manufacturing was slower in July when compared to June, as the more leading components of the PMI — the New Orders and Production Indexes — rose significantly above 50 percent, thus setting an expectation for future growth in the sector. The Employment and Inventories Indexes are still contracting, but the rate is slowing and they are moving in the right direction. It is also worth noting that the New Export Orders Index shows growth following nine consecutive months of decline, suggesting that the global economy is recovering. Overall, it would be difficult to convince many manufacturers that we are on the brink of recovery, but the data suggests that we will see growth in the third quarter if the trends continue."
emphasis added
As noted, any reading below 50 shows contraction, although the pace of contraction has slowed and new orders suggest some growth later this year.