by Calculated Risk on 8/21/2009 10:00:00 AM
Friday, August 21, 2009
Existing Home Sales increase in July
The NAR reports: Strong Gain in Existing-Home Sales Maintains Uptrend
Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 7.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.24 million units in July from a level of 4.89 million in June, and are 5.0 percent above the 4.99 million-unit pace in July 2008.
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Total housing inventory at the end of July rose 7.3 percent to 4.09 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.4-month supply at the current sales pace, which was unchanged from June because of the strong sales gain.
![Existing Home Sales](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-XUZB6GRrdF1hncGDGipjF54QmFmhKhTZapzEgCSvh2QOu-0wJkVWjqX2_Lm2q8bNOdE0kCViZBFX05dGFKPVrw7kd1k0ur1U1JmIAt4uK7yn8OC7VZHNGKMuMCfkedn-eks2Bg/s320/EHSJuly2009Sales.jpg)
The first graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.
Sales in July 2009 (5.24 million SAAR) were 7.2% higher than last month, and were 5.0% lower than July 2008 (4.99 million SAAR).
Here is another way to look at existing homes sales: Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA):
![Existing Home Sales NSA](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgD-BLTvlR2XpincJnUGu7usFqKc9q1fF5zHLJIhulu7XqjzJUSWa5us1RJ4TyDEkz1Rabn0DZsp-lEJL2v3hK5aenRbItuikmOS22CWQeDiwNh-Lf1z3BXt-rsVnLowWBOBryp9w/s320/EHSJuly2009salesNSA.jpg)
It's important to note that many of these transactions are either investors or first-time homebuyers. Also many of the sales are distressed sales (short sales or REOs).
![Existing Home Inventory](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9fl9wn5VZEj4_E_KG0xPLgeefuCKh7SsVncSDYo8GvObpMmyqCdM-qWpxXKU8qOjfVqtTEdV3Ni1uc4AVsc2eKXMPZ8Yt2tFIapGEpr3a4cbETN_H3gDIsmaZ5B5zG1X1ovwsdg/s320/EHSJuly2009inventory.jpg)
Typically inventory peaks in July or August. This increase in inventory was a little more than usual.
Note: many REOs (bank owned properties) are included in the inventory because they are listed - but not all. Recently there have been stories about a substantial number of unlisted REOs and other shadow inventory - so this inventory number is probably low.
![Existing Home Sales Months of Supply](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimDPQ6bm14OpMsR1iH2BAiUEC359J6DBn4g1nj2v2rf3-MlxsYqsnt0ChCZvzWXBeePwtQv0fTkAHqpXCD18fa0N8GespqlGsO0-fWI37jjzmbkJKEzbbrsVXRO8tA2gWauhOjtQ/s320/EHSJuly2009Months.jpg)
Months of supply was steady at 9.4 months.
Sales increased, and inventory increased, so "months of supply" was steady. A normal market has under 6 months of supply, so this is still very high.
Note: New Home sales will be released next Wednesday.