by Calculated Risk on 7/01/2009 10:15:00 AM

Private residential construction spending is 64.5% below the peak of early 2006.

Private non-residential construction spending is only off 4.1% below the peak of last September.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Residential construction spending fell further in May, and nonresidential spending was up a little (because of private spending on power), but will probably decline sharply over the next two years.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change for private residential and nonresidential construction spending.

Nonresidential spending is off 3.3% on a year-over-year basis, and will turn strongly negative as projects are completed. Residential construction spending is still declining YoY, although the negative YoY change should be smaller going forward.

As I've noted before, these will probably be two key stories for late 2009: the collapse in private non-residential construction, and the probable bottom for residential construction spending. Both stories are still developing ...

From the Census Bureau: May 2009 Construction at $968.7 Billion Annual Rate

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $649.2 billion, 1.0 percent (±1.1%)* below the revised April estimate of $655.6 billion. Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $240.2 billion in May, 3.4 percent (±1.3%) below the revised April estimate of $248.8 billion. Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $409.0 billion in May, 0.5 percent (±1.1%)* above the revised April estimate of $406.9 billion.