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Wednesday, April 22, 2009

IMF: Global Synchronized Cliff Diving

by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2009 12:37:00 PM

From the IMF report: Global Prospects and Policies

The global economy is in a severe recession inflicted by a massive financial crisis and an acute loss of confidence. Wide-ranging and often unorthodox policy responses have made some progress in stabilizing financial markets but have not yet restored confidence nor arrested negative feedback between weakening activity and intense financial strains. While the rate of contraction is expected to moderate from the second quarter onward, global activity is projected to decline by 1.3 percent in 2009 as a whole before rising modestly during the course of 2010.
IMF Cliff Diving These graphs from the IMF report show the synchronized global cliff diving.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

On page 11 is a note about Global Business Cycles:
In 2009, almost all the advanced economies are expected to be in recession. The degree of synchronicity of the current recession is the highest to date over the past 50 years. Although it
is clearly driven by declines in activity in the advanced economies, recessions in
a number of emerging and developing economies are contributing to its depth and synchronicity.

To summarize, the 2009 forecasts of economic activity, if realized, would qualify this year as the most severe global recession during the postwar period. Most indicators are expected to register sharper declines than in previous episodes of global recession. In addition to its severity, this global recession also qualifies as the most synchronized, as virtually all the advanced economies and many emerging and developing economies are in recession.
emphasis added
On page 10 are the IMF economic forecasts. For the U.S., the IMF is forecasting -2.8% real change for GDP in 2009, and 0.0% (no change) in 2010.

That is basically the same as the "more adverse" stress test scenario:

Distressing Gap

Click on table for larger image in new window.