Friday, March 27, 2009

Q4: Non-Residential Investment Revised

by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2009 11:04:00 AM

In addition to the Personal Income report this morning, the BEA released the final Q4 private fixed investment supplemental tables.

One of the key areas for downward revisions in the final Q4 GDP report was non-residential investment. These revisions were significant.

I'll use lodging as an example ... this first graph was based on the advanced GDP report:

Lodging Investment as Percent of GDP Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows investment in lodging as a percent of GDP.

In the advance report, lodging investment was reported at 0.34% of GDP - an all time high.

Note: prior to 1997, the BEA included Lodging in a category with a few other buildings. This earlier data was normalized using 1997 data, and is an approximation.

Lodging Investment as Percent of GDP The second graph is based on the final Q4 GDP report.

Instead of increasing slightly in Q4 - as suggested by the advance report - lodging investment declined at a 15.7% annual rate in Q4.

Office investment declined at a 10.1% annual rate in Q4, and mall investment declined at a 11.3% annual rate.

The turning point for non-residential investment was in Q4. Let the cliff diving begin!