Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Market and Misc

by Calculated Risk on 3/31/2009 04:16:00 PM

First, the graph from Doug ...

Stock Market Crashes Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph is from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner): "Four Bad Bears".

Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.

And a few misc notes ...

Almost a 'Half Off' sale (the auction has closed): Hancock Tower sells for $660m at auction

The John Hancock Tower was sold today for $660.6 million at a foreclosure auction in New York City. ... the Hancock's previous owner, Broadway Partners of New York, defaulted on some of the loans it used to buy property for $1.3 billion in late 2006.
More Vegas disaster: Riviera misses interest payment, warns of possible bankruptcy (ht Howard)
"The deteriorating trends in revenue and earnings experienced during the first three quarters of 2008 continued as evidenced by our fourth quarter results and accelerated during the first quarter of 2009. We expect this situation to continue as long as competitors in the Las Vegas market follow a strategy of sacrificing ADR (average daily room rate) to maximize room occupancy and the decline in convention business is unabated."
Yeah, blame your competitors for cutting prices!

And from an analyst on Case-Shiller and housing:
The acceleration in the rate of decline in the US Case-Shiller 20-city house price index is a bit disappointing given that other evidence suggested conditions in the housing market may have stabilised since the turn of the year. The annual growth rate fell from 18.6% in December to a new record low of 19.0% in January. Although the monthly data need to be treated with a great deal of caution (this series is not seasonally adjusted) ...
I forgot to mention CS is not seasonally adjusted (an important point), but I think the first sentence is incorrect. There will probably be two bottoms for housing - the first for single family starts and new home sales, and the 2nd - later, perhaps much later - for existing home prices. The Case-Shiller price declines are not "disappointing" with regards to the other data. Even if starts bottom sometime this year, I expect house prices to continue to fall. See More on Housing Bottoms.