by Calculated Risk on 2/19/2009 11:20:00 AM
Thursday, February 19, 2009
U.S. Vehicle Miles Driven Off 3.6% in 2008
The Dept of Transportation reports on U.S. Traffic Volume Trends:
Travel on all roads and streets changed by -1.6% (-3.8 billion vehicle miles) for December 2008 as compared with December 2007. Travel for the month is estimated to be 237.2 billion vehicle miles.
Cumulative Travel for 2008 changed by -3.6% (-107.9 billion vehicle miles). The Cumulative estimate for the year is 2,921.9 billion vehicle miles of travel.
![Vehicle Miles Driven](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiD7OEGZpAZmU4g2pVf5rL9pOAJI6FxSsPVdAvMsb-ypkBpgrsVTVgXHhm5JEpARZlOYUKWlo6WqtA3_B5atmZNisNW9W75MxZMrCjQU3vEKPmgvQDT88gWHRVBCbai2NKGZ8Ap/s320/MilesDrivenDec09YoY.jpg)
The first graph shows the annual change in the rolling 12 month average of U.S. vehicles miles driven. Note: the rolling 12 month average is used to remove noise and seasonality.
By this measure, vehicle miles driven are off 3.6% Year-over-year (YoY); the decline in miles driven is worse than during the early '70s and 1979-1980 oil crisis. As the DOT noted, miles driven in December 2008 were 1.6% less than December 2007, so the YoY change in the rolling average may start to increase.
![Vehicle Miles Driven](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1TwlsIac3XkwQW-YXUf6SpMgAtj9FedJwnZkVK5aa0NDf3l-I6VAXSv6_MbyjEJNTZ2WGm1oyKvA4Xf3x5lbRqxrbp4qfvNnKzJv_fyn7loinXG7N3Bcp1P2awsSGqR2Xg_mc/s320/MilesDrivenDec09Month.jpg)
For miles driven in December, the sharp decline in gasoline prices offset the impact from the slowing economy.