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Wednesday, February 04, 2009

2009 GDP Forecasts

by Calculated Risk on 2/04/2009 08:47:00 PM

I was asked earlier today about UCLA Anderson Forecast's current outlook. They are forecasting a severe recession, with GDP turning slightly positive in the 2nd half of 2009, but unemployment to continue to rise into 2010.

Here are a few recent 2009 GDP forecasts from UCLA Anderson Forecast, Paul Kasriel at Northern Trust, and David Rosenberg at Merrill Lynch.

Rosenberg is fairly optimistic on GDP growth in the 2nd half of 2009 based on the impact of the stimulus package (although he thinks GDP growth in 2010 will be tepid). He sees unemployment rising to double digit rates in 2010.

Looking at the details, I'm more pessimistic than Merrill on non-residential structures, and a little less pessimistic on residential investment going forward.

2009 GDP Forecasts Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Kasriel's forecast is available online and he is projecting unemployment to rise to 8.8% by the end of 2009. Although he thinks GDP growth will turn positive in Q4, he is concerned about a double dip recession.

Just some forecasts to discuss on the comments ...