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Thursday, January 08, 2009

Roubini: Two Year Recession

by Calculated Risk on 1/08/2009 04:30:00 PM

From Rex Nutting at MarketWatch: Roubini forecasts recession will last 2 years

The U.S. recession will last two full years, with gross domestic product falling a cumulative 5%, said Nouriel Roubini, ... For 2009, Roubini predicts GDP will fall 3.4%, with declines in every quarter of the year. The unemployment rate should peak at about 9% in early 2010 ...
Roubini is forecasting a pretty serious recession, but far short of a "depression" which is usually defined as a 10% decline in real GDP.

The concensus (and the Fed forecast) is that the economy will bottom in Q2 2009 with a sluggish recovery in the 2nd half of this year.